Water and land use in China's food systems: Exploring potential mitigation strategies

The potential adverse impact of increasing international food trade on the environment has received growing global attention in recent years, underscoring the importance of sustainable food systems worldwide. China is facing the critical issues regarding food security, particularly the country's increasing reliance on food imports and the associated environmental challenges. However, the current understanding of water and land pressures from food demand and food security risks arising from growing food imports remains limited. This study conducts a detailed examination of water and land use in China's food systems from 2000 to 2019, utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 132 domestic and 320 imported and exported products and develop varying mitigation scenarios based on counterfactual analysis and global food equation. These findings reveal a significant annual increase in the water and land resources embedded in food imports, with external dependencies on these resources exceeding 37 % by 2019. The research identifies several mitigation strategies, including closing yield gaps and reducing food waste, which could decrease the reliance on external water and land by up to 31 %. However, transitioning to dietary patterns recommended by Chinese guidelines is likely to increase overall demand for these resources. Intensifying these strategies would minimize reliance on external resources, reducing alternative water demand by 38 % and land demand by 41 %. Conclusively, the study highlights the importance of global strategic policy interventions to strengthen food security while minimizing the reliance on external water and land resources, with China serving as a critical case study. These interventions are essential for ensuring the resilience of the food system against future global shocks.