Very early warning of next El Niño

Josef Ludescher; Avi Gozolchiani; Mikhail I. Bogachev; Armin Bunde; Shlomo Havlin; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

doi:10.1073/pnas.1323058111

Very early warning of next El Niño

Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Bar-Ilan University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

131 Scopus citations

Abstract

Themost important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6mo ahead. Recently,we developed an approach based on network analysis,which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood.We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2064-2066
Number of pages	3
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	111
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323058111
State	Published - 11 Feb 2014

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10.1073/pnas.1323058111

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AU - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

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Very early warning of next El Niño

Abstract

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