TY - JOUR
T1 - Very early warning of next El Niño
AU - Ludescher, Josef
AU - Gozolchiani, Avi
AU - Bogachev, Mikhail I.
AU - Bunde, Armin
AU - Havlin, Shlomo
AU - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
PY - 2014/2/11
Y1 - 2014/2/11
N2 - Themost important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6mo ahead. Recently,we developed an approach based on network analysis,which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood.We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.
AB - Themost important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6mo ahead. Recently,we developed an approach based on network analysis,which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood.We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893870764&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1323058111
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1323058111
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AN - SCOPUS:84893870764
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 111
SP - 2064
EP - 2066
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 6
ER -