The fundamental causes of disaster vulnerability: Subsistence agricultural land loss in rural Malawi

Land access is one of the strongest predictors of disaster vulnerability for extreme weather events in rural, low-income environments. In Southern Africa, smallholder farmers face accelerating land loss from both slow-onset stressors, such as declining soil fertility and acute stressors such as cyclones. However, the complex mechanisms through which land loss perpetuates disaster vulnerability require a deeper examination of the lived experience of rural farmers. In this study, we examined how agricultural land loss functions as a fundamental cause of disaster vulnerability in rural Malawi, drawing on Blaikie's land degradation framework and using qualitative methods. Between 2020 and 2024, we conducted in-depth interviews with 49 community members and 44 disaster responders across Neno and Chikwawa Districts, following Cyclones Idai, Ana, and Freddy, supplemented by participant observations and spatial analysis. Our analysis revealed that land degradation operates simultaneously as symptom, cause, and result of broader socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Land degradation reflects pre-existing rural-urban inequalities driven by increasing demands for charcoal and agricultural products. When intersecting with cyclones, degraded land accelerates soil loss and forces displacement. Subsequently, land degradation becomes a result of harmful adaptation strategies, as communities turn to illegal charcoal production, creating feedback loops that increase future disaster risk. Climate change disrupts traditional coping mechanisms by compressing temporal patterns of disaster and recovery, creating double exposure to acute and slow-onset stressors that intersect with existing socioeconomic disparities. The findings demonstrate that disaster vulnerability persists because current policies fail to address land access as a fundamental cause, leaving underlying inequalities in resource access unaddressed.