The Causal Role of Lockdowns in COVID-19: Conclusions From Daily Epidemiological, Psychological, and Sociological Data

Much has been written about the COVID-19 pandemic’s epidemiological, psychological, and sociological consequences. Yet, the question about the role of the lockdown policy from psychological and sociological points of view has not been sufficiently addressed. Using epidemiological, psychological, and sociological daily data, we examined the causal role of lockdown and variation in morbidity referring to emotional and behavioral aspects. Dynamics of support requests to the Sahar organization concerning loneliness, depression, anxiety, family difficulties, and sexual trauma were investigated alongside processes of emergency and domestic violence reports to the Ministry of Welfare and Social Affairs. By exploring the signals and predictive modeling for a situation with no lockdown implementation, the lockdown was found as a critical factor in distress rising among the general population, which could affect long after the improvement in pandemic case counts. Applications and implications are discussed in the context of decision-making in dealing with crises as well as the need to allocate resources for adaptive coping.