Territoriality and war in international crises: Theory and findings, 1918-2001

In operational terms, territoriality is defined herein as the most salient "bone of contention" in an international crisis and as a characteristic of the setting for the adversaries involved in the case. The first part of the definition seeks to assess the impact of territoriality as an issue over which states contend during a crisis, whereas the second views territorial location as a contextual element that affects the confrontation. Before examining both these factors, wewill first define issues and stakes and outline a territory-based typology of international crises. Next we will compare four distinct types of international crises-ranging from those where territorial issues and stakes are most salient, to others in which territoriality is nonexistent. We will also investigate the effects of location, highlighting the concept of contiguity to explore the behavior of neighbors versus distant states in conflict. We anticipate that territorial rivalries will differ from nonterritorial rivalries and that within territorial rivalries territorial issues will be more important than stakes and location in shaping the patterns of escalation and de-escalation in international crises. In our analysis we will address violence, not war alone. The universe of 434 international crises included in the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, covering the period 1918-2001, will be used to validate the impact of territoriality on the level of interstate violence. Moreover, to examine processes of escalation and de-escalation, the outcomes of the crises will be analyzed as well.