Statistical process control via context modeling of finite-state processes: An application to production monitoring

Conventional Statistical Process Control (SPC) schemes fail to monitor nonlinear and finite-state processes that often result from feedback-controlled processes. SPC methods that are designed to monitor autocorrelated processes usually assume a known model (often an ARIMA) that might poorly describe the real process. In this paper, we present a novel SPC methodology based on context modeling of finite-state processes. The method utilizes a series of context-tree models to estimate the conditional distribution of the process output given the context of previous observations. The Kullback-Leibler divergence statistic is derived to indicate significant changes in the trees along the process. The method is implemented in a simulated flexible manufacturing system in order to detect significant changes in its production mix ratio output.