Abstract
A mixed layer model of the upper ocean was coupled to the global medium-range forecast model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Results are presented from a series of nine 30-day December forecasts. In one-way forecasts (th atmosphere forces the ocean only), the model's skill is better than persistence at all times and comparable to or better than a persistent initial anomaly forecast out to 3 weeks in the extratropics and out to 12 days in the Tropics. In general, the two-way feedback acts to reduce the magnitude of net surface heat flux, leading to a slight increase in forecast skill in the Tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Finally, a preliminary assessment of the effects of the initial conditions shows that the forecasts in the winter hemisphere are indeed sensitive to the specification of the initial subsurface temperature profiles.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 3337-3356 |
Number of pages | 20 |
Journal | Journal of Climate |
Volume | 9 |
Issue number | 12 II |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1996 |
Externally published | Yes |