Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein, Ben Zion Zilberfarb

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations


We examine the seasonal pattern in expectations, using a unique Israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts. Rationality is rejected with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)86-90
Number of pages5
JournalEconomics Letters
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2017

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.


Goldstein is grateful to the Azrieli Foundation for the award of an Azrieli Fellowship.

FundersFunder number
Azrieli Foundation


    • Rational expectations
    • Seasonality
    • Survey forecasts


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