Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein; Ben Zion Zilberfarb

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017

Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein, Ben Zion Zilberfarb

Department of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examine the seasonal pattern in expectations, using a unique Israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts. Rationality is rejected with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	86-90
Number of pages	5
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	150
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017
State	Published - 1 Jan 2017

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Funding

Goldstein is grateful to the Azrieli Foundation for the award of an Azrieli Fellowship.

Funders	Funder number
Azrieli Foundation

Keywords

Rational expectations
Seasonality
Survey forecasts

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10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017

Cite this

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Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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