Predictions made by psychiatrists and psychiatric nurses of violence by patients

Studies have shown that it is difficult for psychiatrists to accurately predict which patients will be violent while hospitalized. The authors compared the predictions of 14 psychiatrists and nine psychiatric nurses who independently evaluated 308 patients consecutively admitted to a hospital in Israel and rated their likelihood of becoming violent. The psychiatrists and nurses also completed a general questionnaire about the criteria they used to predict violence. No significant differences were found in the accuracy of predictions between the two professional groups or in the criteria they used to predict violence. The total predictive value, or proportion of all cases predicted correctly, was 82 percent for the psychiatrists and 84 percent for the nurses. The predictions of the two groups coincided for 83 percent of the patients. The results suggest that psychiatrists and psychiatric nurses make similarly accurate predictions of violence and use similar criteria for making them.