Predicting product life cycle patterns

Yair Orbach, Gila E. Fruchter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


In this paper, we propose a new model of adoption and repurchase due to upgrades driven by the utility of technology products that keep improving. The model is able to predict product life cycle patterns that could not be explained previously. Such patterns were used to challenge diffusion theory validity. Mathematically, the model is described as a nonlinear discrete system that depends on a small set of parameters. We investigate the dynamic properties of the nonlinear system using numerical stability analysis. We find domains in the parameters space in which the equilibrium point and the periodical orbits are stable. The domains correspond to population heterogeneity, tendency to upgrade, and the influence of industry response on market dynamics. We also implement our model to fit actual data of two real-world product life cycles with many irregularities and benchmark the results of our model vs. well-known models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-52
Number of pages16
JournalMarketing Letters
Issue number1
StatePublished - Mar 2014


  • Cycles and chaos
  • Forecasting
  • Nonlinear dynamic systems
  • PLC
  • Repeat purchase
  • Upgrade
  • Utility


Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting product life cycle patterns'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this