Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning

Natalie Fridman; Tomer Zilberstein; Gal A. Kaminka

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7

Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning

Natalie Fridman
, Tomer Zilberstein
, Gal A. Kaminka

Bar-Ilan University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of social sciences theories.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings
Pages	42-50
Number of pages	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7
State	Published - 2011
Event	4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011 - College Park, MD, United States Duration: 29 Mar 2011 → 31 Mar 2011

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume	6589 LNCS
ISSN (Print)	0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)	1611-3349

Conference

Conference	4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011
Country/Territory	United States
City	College Park, MD
Period	29/03/11 → 31/03/11

Bibliographical note

Place of conference:USA

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Demonstrations
Qualitative reasoning
Social Simulation

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7

Cite this

Fridman, N., Zilberstein, T., & Kaminka, G. A. (2011). Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning. In Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings (pp. 42-50). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 6589 LNCS). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7

Fridman, Natalie ; Zilberstein, Tomer ; Kaminka, Gal A. / Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning. Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings. 2011. pp. 42-50 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)).

@inproceedings{e3afe6c16c9b4aaea575569460e557bb,

title = "Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning",

abstract = "In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of social sciences theories.",

keywords = "Demonstrations, Qualitative reasoning, Social Simulation",

author = "Natalie Fridman and Tomer Zilberstein and Kaminka, \{Gal A.\}",

note = "Place of conference:USA; 4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011 ; Conference date: 29-03-2011 Through 31-03-2011",

year = "2011",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0\_7",

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pages = "42--50",

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}

Fridman, N, Zilberstein, T & Kaminka, GA 2011, Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning. in Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), vol. 6589 LNCS, pp. 42-50, 4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011, College Park, MD, United States, 29/03/11. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7

Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning. / Fridman, Natalie; Zilberstein, Tomer; Kaminka, Gal A.
Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings. 2011. p. 42-50 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 6589 LNCS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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KW - Social Simulation

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Fridman N, Zilberstein T, Kaminka GA. Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning. In Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings. 2011. p. 42-50. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7

Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Modeling Crowd Behavior

Cite this

Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Student theses

Modeling Crowd Behavior

Cite this