TY - GEN
T1 - Predicting demonstrations' violence level using qualitative reasoning
AU - Fridman, Natalie
AU - Zilberstein, Tomer
AU - Kaminka, Gal A.
N1 - Place of conference:USA
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of social sciences theories.
AB - In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of social sciences theories.
KW - Demonstrations
KW - Qualitative reasoning
KW - Social Simulation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79952372920&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7
DO - 10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_7
M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontobookanthology.conference???
AN - SCOPUS:79952372920
SN - 9783642196553
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
SP - 42
EP - 50
BT - Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, Proceedings
T2 - 4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011
Y2 - 29 March 2011 through 31 March 2011
ER -
