Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

Jingfang Fan; Dong Zhou; Louis M. Shekhtman; Avi Shapira; Rami Hofstetter; Warner Marzocchi; Yosef Ashkenazy; Shlomo Havlin

doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210

Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

Jingfang Fan, Dong Zhou, Louis M. Shekhtman, Avi Shapira, Rami Hofstetter, Warner Marzocchi, Yosef Ashkenazy, Shlomo Havlin

Department of Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. Skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability (CP) methods, we find that memory exists not only in interoccurrence seismic records but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Analysis of a standard epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) earthquake model indicates that the empirically observed earthquake memory can be reproduced only for a narrow range of the model's parameters. This finding therefore provides tight constraints on the model's parameters and can serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models. Furthermore, we show that by implementing DFA and CP results, the ETAS model can significantly improve the short-term forecasting rate for the real (Italian) earthquake catalog.

Original language	English
Article number	042210
Journal	Physical Review E
Volume	99
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210
State	Published - 19 Apr 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 American Physical Society.

Funding

This work was partially supported by Italy-Israel project OPERA, which is funded jointly by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Israeli Ministry of Science, Technology, and Space (MOST). We also thank the Israel Science Foundation, ONR, Japan Science Foundation, BSF-NSF, ARO, the EU 2020 project RISE (Project No. 821115), and DTRA (Grant No. HDTRA-1-10-1-0014) for financial support. J.F. thanks the East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities–EPICC project, which is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI).

Funders	Funder number
BSF-NSF
EU 2020	821115, HDTRA-1-10-1-0014
Israeli Ministry of Science, Technology, and Space
Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation
Japan Science Foundation
Office of Naval Research
Army Research Office
Ministry of Science and Technology
Israel Science Foundation

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10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210

Cite this

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abstract = "Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. Skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability (CP) methods, we find that memory exists not only in interoccurrence seismic records but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Analysis of a standard epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) earthquake model indicates that the empirically observed earthquake memory can be reproduced only for a narrow range of the model's parameters. This finding therefore provides tight constraints on the model's parameters and can serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models. Furthermore, we show that by implementing DFA and CP results, the ETAS model can significantly improve the short-term forecasting rate for the real (Italian) earthquake catalog.",

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AU - Hofstetter, Rami

AU - Marzocchi, Warner

AU - Ashkenazy, Yosef

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Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

Abstract

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