Percolation framework to describe el ni~no conditions

Jun Meng, Jingfang Fan, Yosef Ashkenazy, Shlomo Havlin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Scopus citations

Abstract

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate networks. We find that abrupt transitions of the order parameter usually occur ~1 year before El Ni~no events, suggesting that they can be used as early warning precursors of El Ni~no. Using this method, we analyze several reanalysis datasets and show the potential for good forecasting of El Ni~no. The percolation based order parameter exhibits discontinuous features, indicating a possible relation to the first order phase transition mechanism.

Original languageEnglish
Article number035807
JournalChaos
Volume27
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Mar 2017

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