Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Takahiro Omi; Ido Kanter; Shigeru Shinomoto

doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Takahiro Omi, Ido Kanter, Shigeru Shinomoto

Department of Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

Original language	English
Article number	026101
Pages (from-to)	026101
Journal	Physical Review E
Volume	83
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101
State	Published - 2 Feb 2011

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10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

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Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

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