Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Takahiro Omi, Ido Kanter, Shigeru Shinomoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

Original languageEnglish
Article number026101
Pages (from-to)026101
JournalPhysical Review E
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2 Feb 2011


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