Operational and technological incentives and disincentives for force transformation

Abolishing conscription has become a general trend in the Western world. The US, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have already adopted the all-volunteer model, or are about to do so. The Nordic countries and Germany have not yet taken this step, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of their armed forces (Moller 2002: 227-306).1 Both in the literature and in debates on the future of the citizen army, the alternative - an all-volunteer army model - is usually portrayed as smaller in size but more effective and professional. This chapter discusses the incentives and disincentives of maintaining a citizen army in Western societies from the operational and technological perspectives. It would be reasonable to reduce the dilemma between the models of a citizen and an all-volunteer army to two main questions: First, can an all-volunteer model supply an army large enough to cope with contemporary high-intensity conflicts (HICs) and low-intensity conflicts (LICs)? Second, can a citizen army attain the level of professionalism expected from contemporary militaries? I will try to answer these questions by confronting the armies’ size and professionalism with two major developments in the nature of war in recent decades. One is the prevalence of complex, asymmetrical conflicts, which since the end of the Cold War have accounted for some 95 percent of international conflicts. The second is the ascendancy of firepower over maneuver on the battlefield due to technological changes. My principal argument is that from both an operational and a technological point of view the citizen army has not yet run its course. More specifically: • Large armies are still required in order to achieve battlefield decision in circumstances where its attainment is relevant, and in order to aquire the optimal troop-to-space and troops-per-residents ratios necessary for the achievement of battlefield success and effective control of a territory. The citizen-army model is also better suited for furnishing larger armies than is the all-volunteer model.