On generalized binomial laws to evaluate finite element accuracy: Preliminary probabilistic results for adaptive mesh refinement

The aim of this paper is to provide new perspectives on the relative finite elements accuracy. Starting from a geometrical interpretation of the error estimate which can be deduced from Bramble-Hilbert lemma, we derive a probability law that evaluates the relative accuracy, considered as a random variable, between two finite elements Pk and Pm, k < m. We extend this probability law to get a cumulated probabilistic law for two main applications. The first one concerns a family of meshes, the second one is dedicated to a sequence of simplexes constituting a given mesh. Both of these applications could be considered as a first step toward application for adaptive mesh refinement with probabilistic methods.