New Frailty Index Approach Predicts COVID-19 Mortality Risk

Alexander Fedintsev, Maria Karnaushkina, Ilia Stambler, Arnold Mitnitski, Alexander Melerzanov, Maria Litvinova, Kirill Balbek, Alexey Moskalev

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


Abstract: The relationships between blood biomarkers, frailty, and the risk of death of people diagnosed with COVID-19 is unclear. In the current investigation we decided to analyze the collective effect of multiple biomarkers (laboratory markers of inflammation, blood biochemistry deviations, comorbidity, demographics) on mortality in people diagnosed with COVID-19. We analyzed baseline data of one hundred fifty-five patients (age range from twenty-six to ninety-four) diagnosed with COVID-19. Thirty-seven parameters (including major morbidities) were used to derive the frailty index (FI) and calculate the risk of death as a function of FI and individual biomarkers. Discriminative ability was assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves). The mean frailty index was 0.17 (SD = 0.10), FI of those who survived was 0.11 (SD = 0.078) and those who died was 0.22 (SD = 0.093). In a sex-adjusted model, the FI was a more powerful predictor for mortality than age. The ROC analysis showed that models involving FI as a feature have good discriminative ability for predicting COVID-19 mortality: AUC for age was 0.77, for the FI it was 0.82, and for the fully adjusted model (age + FI) it was 0.84. Thus, the systemic effect of multiple biological processes comprising aging are elucidated using the Frailty Index approach. Assessment of the frailty index at the time of admission of a patient with COVID-19 to the clinic can help to predict the high risks of severe disease and mortality.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)26-35
Number of pages10
JournalAdvances in Gerontology
Issue number1
StatePublished - Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2023.


We dedicate this article to the memory of our friend and teacher Arnold Mitnitsky, one of the creators of the Frailty Index concept. This manuscript is his last scientific work on which he worked intensively during the last months of his life.

FundersFunder number
Arnold Mitnitsky


    • COVID-19
    • aging
    • biomarkers
    • frailty
    • frailty index
    • mortality


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