Motivational Drivers for Serial Position Effects: Evidence From High-Stakes Legal Decisions

Ori Plonsky, Daniel L. Chen, Liat Netzer, Talya Steiner, Yuval Feldman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Experts and employees in many domains make multiple similar but independent decisions in sequence. Often, the serial position of the case in the sequence influences the decision. Explanations for these serial position effects focus on the role of decision-makers’ fatigue, but these effects emerge also when fatigue is unlikely. Here, we suggest that serial position effects can emerge due to decision-makers’ motivation to be or appear consistent. For example, to avoid having inconsistencies revealed, decisions may become more favorable toward the side that is more likely to put a decision under scrutiny. As a context, we focus on the legal domain in which many high-stakes decisions are made in sequence and in which there are clear institutional processes of decision scrutiny. We analyze two field data sets: 386, 109 U.S. immigration judges’ decisions on asylum requests and 20, 796 jury decisions in 18th century London criminal court. We distinguish between five mechanisms that can drive serial position effects and examine their predictions in these settings. We find that consistent with motivation-based explanations of serial position effects, but inconsistent with fatigue-based explanations, decisions become more lenient as a function of serial position, and the effect persists over breaks.We further find, as is predicted by motivational accounts, that the leniency effect is stronger among more experienced decision-makers. By elucidating the different drivers of serial position effects, our investigation clarifies why they are common, when they are expected, and how to reduce them.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Applied Psychology
Early online date1 Dec 2022
DOIs
StateE-pub ahead of print - 1 Dec 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank Andreas Glöckner for valuable discussions on an earlier version of this article. This research was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), ERC Grant 324182. Daniel L. Chen acknowledges Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR) under the Investments for the Future (Investissements d’Avenir) program, Grant ANR-17-EUR-0010, and financial support from the research foundation Toulouse School of Economics Partnership and Artificial and Natural Intelligence Toulouse Institute funding

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Psychological Association

Keywords

  • Consistency
  • Judicial decision-making
  • Legal decisions
  • Order effects
  • Sequential decision-making

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