Long term persistence in the atmosphere: Global laws and tests of climate models

Armin Bunde; Shlomo Havlin; Eva Koscielny-Bunde; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

doi:10.1016/s0378-4371(01)00469-1

Long term persistence in the atmosphere: Global laws and tests of climate models

Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Eva Koscielny-Bunde, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Department of Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

47 Scopus citations

Abstract

The persistence of short term weather states is a well known phenomenon: A warm day is more likely to be followed by a warm day than by a cold one and vice versa. Using advanced methods from statistical physics that are able to distinguish between trends and persistence we have shown recently that this rule may well extend to months, years and decades, and on these scales the decay of the persistence seems to follow a universal power law. Here we review these studies and discuss, how the law can be used as an (uncomfortable) test bed for the state-of-the-art climate models. It turns out that the models considered display wide performance differences and actually fail to reproduce the universal power law behavior of the persistence. It seems that the models tend to underestimate persistence while overestimating trends, and this fact may imply that the models exaggerate the expected global warming of the atmosphere.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	255-267
Number of pages	13
Journal	Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume	302
Issue number	1-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(01)00469-1
State	Published - 15 Dec 2001
Event	International Workshop on Frontiers in the Physics of Complex Systems - Ramat-Gan, Israel Duration: 25 Mar 2001 → 28 Mar 2001

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The results presented here review recent studies in collaboration with R.B. Govindan, D. Vjushin, J. Kantelhardt, and S. Brenner. We devote this article to the honor of our dear friend H. Eugene Stanley, for the occasion of his 60th birthday. This work has been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the Israel Science Foundation.

Funding

The results presented here review recent studies in collaboration with R.B. Govindan, D. Vjushin, J. Kantelhardt, and S. Brenner. We devote this article to the honor of our dear friend H. Eugene Stanley, for the occasion of his 60th birthday. This work has been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the Israel Science Foundation.

Funders	Funder number
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Israel Science Foundation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/s0378-4371(01)00469-1

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abstract = "The persistence of short term weather states is a well known phenomenon: A warm day is more likely to be followed by a warm day than by a cold one and vice versa. Using advanced methods from statistical physics that are able to distinguish between trends and persistence we have shown recently that this rule may well extend to months, years and decades, and on these scales the decay of the persistence seems to follow a universal power law. Here we review these studies and discuss, how the law can be used as an (uncomfortable) test bed for the state-of-the-art climate models. It turns out that the models considered display wide performance differences and actually fail to reproduce the universal power law behavior of the persistence. It seems that the models tend to underestimate persistence while overestimating trends, and this fact may imply that the models exaggerate the expected global warming of the atmosphere.",

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Long term persistence in the atmosphere: Global laws and tests of climate models

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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