TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-range correlations and trends in global climate models
T2 - Comparison with real data
AU - Govindan, R. B.
AU - Vjushin, Dmitry
AU - Brenner, Stephen
AU - Bunde, Armin
AU - Havlin, Shlomo
AU - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
PY - 2001/5/1
Y1 - 2001/5/1
N2 - We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly mean temperature data of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state-of-the-art general circulation models that are currently used in studies of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere: GFDL-R15-a, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HADCM3. In all models, the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean dynamics. We apply fluctuation analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis which can systematically overcome nonstationarities in the data, to evaluate the models according to their ability to reproduce the proper fluctuations and trends in the past and compare the results with the future prediction.
AB - We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly mean temperature data of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state-of-the-art general circulation models that are currently used in studies of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere: GFDL-R15-a, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HADCM3. In all models, the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean dynamics. We apply fluctuation analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis which can systematically overcome nonstationarities in the data, to evaluate the models according to their ability to reproduce the proper fluctuations and trends in the past and compare the results with the future prediction.
KW - Climate models
KW - Correlations
KW - DFA
KW - Scaling
KW - Trends
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0035336957&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/s0378-4371(01)00110-8
DO - 10.1016/s0378-4371(01)00110-8
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AN - SCOPUS:0035336957
SN - 0378-4371
VL - 294
SP - 239
EP - 248
JO - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
JF - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
IS - 1-2
ER -
