We present an axiomatic model of a process wherein likelihoods of eventualities are compared based on data. One eventuality is perceived as more likely than another whenever the data corroborates this conclusion. However, the correct relevance of records to the eventualities under consideration may be impossible to ascertain with any degree of surety due to multiple interpretations of the data, formalized by allowing the evaluator to entertain multiple weighting functions. The evaluator ranks one eventuality as more likely than another whenever its total weight over the entire database is higher, according to all relevance-weighting functions. Otherwise, the comparison is indecisive.
|Number of pages||16|
|Journal||Games and Economic Behavior|
|State||Published - Mar 2022|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
We are grateful to Itzhak Gilboa, Ehud Lehrer, David Schmeidler and Peter Wakker for many helpful comments. We thank The Israel Science Foundation , grant number 1188/14 . G. Bavly acknowledges support from the Department of Economics at Bar-Ilan University , the Sir Isaac Wolfson Chair in Economics , ISF grants 1626/18 and 2566/20 , and ERC starting grant # 677057 .
© 2022 Elsevier Inc.
- Case-based decision theory
- Inductive inference
- Likelihood comparisons