Global model seasonal forecasts for the Mediterranean region

Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at seasonal timescales, and for regional areas, are provided on the world wide web, and digital experimental forecast products are made available to interested researchers. Are these forecasts useful for the Mediterranean region? What improvements could be made? The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe the global forecasts and analysis system, various biases and errors in the forecasts, as well as the significant skill of seasonal forecasts for the forecasts derived for the domain that includes the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding land areas. In particular, near-surface meteorological parameters, including temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, relative humidity, wind speed, and a fire weather index (a nonlinear combination of temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) are skillful at weekly to seasonal timescales over much of this region. Still, there are many improvements that can be made and the purpose of this paper is to provide a baseline for further development of the global model as well as various regional models.