Generic approach for mathematical model of multi-strain pandemics

Teddy Lazebnik, Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Scopus citations

Abstract

Multi-strain pandemics have emerged as a major concern. We introduce a new model for assessing the connection between multi-strain pandemics and mortality rate, basic reproduction number, and maximum infected individuals. The proposed model provides a general mathematical approach for representing multi-strain pandemics, generalizing for an arbitrary number of strains. We show that the proposed model fits well with epidemiological historical world health data over a long time period. From a theoretical point of view, we show that the increasing number of strains increases logarithmically the maximum number of infected individuals and the mean mortality rate. Moreover, the mean basic reproduction number is statistically identical to the single, most aggressive pandemic strain for multi-strain pandemics.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0260683
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume17
Issue number4 April
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2022
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Lazebnik, Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

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