Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: A prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method

Achamyeleh Birhanu Teshale, Htet Lin Htun, Alice J. Owen, Joanne Ryan, J. R. Baker, Mor Vered, Christopher M. Reid, Robyn L. Woods, Michael Berk, Andrew Tonkin, Johannes T. Neumann, Monique F. Kilkenny, Aung Zaw Zaw Phyo, Mark R. Nelson, Nigel Stocks, Carlene Britt, Rosanne Freak-Poli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD. Methods: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD. Results: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberjech-2023-221860
JournalJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health
Early online date5 Jun 2024
DOIs
StateE-pub ahead of print - 5 Jun 2024
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Keywords

  • CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
  • GERIATRICS
  • GERONTOLOGY
  • PUBLIC HEALTH
  • SOCIAL CAPITAL

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