Gambling strategies and prize-pricing recommendation in sports multi-bets

Oz Pirvandy; Moti Fridman; Gur Yaari

doi:10.3390/bdcc5040070

Gambling strategies and prize-pricing recommendation in sports multi-bets

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

A sports multi-bet is a bet on the results of a set of N games. One type of multi-bet offered by the Israeli government is WINNER 16, where participants guess the results of a set of 16 soccer games. The prizes in WINNER 16 are determined by the accumulated profit in previous rounds, and are split among all winning forms. When the reward increases beyond a certain threshold, a profitable strategy can be devised. Here, we present a machine-learning algorithm scheme to play WINNER 16. Our proposed algorithm is marginally profitable on average in a range of hyperparameters, indicating inefficiencies in this game. To make a better prize-pricing mechanism we suggest a generalization of the single-bet approach. We studied the expected profit and risk of WINNER 16 after applying our suggestion. Our proposal can make the game more fair and more appealing without reducing the profitability.

Original language	English
Article number	70
Journal	Big Data and Cognitive Computing
Volume	5
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/bdcc5040070
State	Published - Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Keywords

Betting strategy
Machine learning
Market efficiency
Pricing
Wisdom of crowds

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10.3390/bdcc5040070

Cite this

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Gambling strategies and prize-pricing recommendation in sports multi-bets

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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