TY - JOUR
T1 - Examining the incidence of and time to recidivism within the risk contingency framework
T2 - A 20-year follow up study
AU - Levine, Stephen Z.
PY - 2009/4
Y1 - 2009/4
N2 - This study examined the extent to which the contingencies risk framework (consisting of dispositional, historical, contextual, and clinical domains) predicted detected recidivism (i.e., arrest or conviction). Secondary data were extracted on 413 prisoners who underwent a psychiatric evaluation, were assessed on the risk domains, and followed up over 20 years. There were 273 (66.1%) cases of recidivism for serious offenses (e.g., assaults). Criminal career outcomes examined included: years to and the incidence of recidivism. Statistics showed that chance classification of the incidence of recidivism was 21% more accurate for the recursive partitioning than the bilinear model. These results are consistent with the contingencies risk framework, support its use over linear models, and highlight its predictive utility.
AB - This study examined the extent to which the contingencies risk framework (consisting of dispositional, historical, contextual, and clinical domains) predicted detected recidivism (i.e., arrest or conviction). Secondary data were extracted on 413 prisoners who underwent a psychiatric evaluation, were assessed on the risk domains, and followed up over 20 years. There were 273 (66.1%) cases of recidivism for serious offenses (e.g., assaults). Criminal career outcomes examined included: years to and the incidence of recidivism. Statistics showed that chance classification of the incidence of recidivism was 21% more accurate for the recursive partitioning than the bilinear model. These results are consistent with the contingencies risk framework, support its use over linear models, and highlight its predictive utility.
KW - Accuracy
KW - Classification
KW - Dangerousness
KW - Recidivism
KW - Recursive partitioning
KW - Risk
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=62349092721&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10979-008-9142-z
DO - 10.1007/s10979-008-9142-z
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C2 - 18506604
AN - SCOPUS:62349092721
SN - 0147-7307
VL - 33
SP - 167
EP - 174
JO - Law and Human Behavior
JF - Law and Human Behavior
IS - 2
ER -