Evolution in fluctuating environments: A generic modular approach

Bnaya Steinmetz, Immanuel Meyer, Nadav M. Shnerb

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Evolutionary processes take place in fluctuating environments, where carrying capacities and selective forces vary over time. The fate of a mutant type and the persistence time of polymorphic states were studied in some specific cases of varying environments, but a generic methodology is still lacking. Here, we present such a general analytic framework. We first identify a set of elementary building blocks, a few basic demographic processes like logistic or exponential growth, competition at equilibrium, sudden decline, and so on. For each of these elementary blocks, we evaluate the mean and the variance of the changes in the frequency of the mutant population. Finally, we show how to find the relevant terms of the diffusion equation for each arbitrary combination of these blocks. Armed with this technique one may calculate easily the quantities that govern the evolutionary dynamics, like the chance of ultimate fixation, the time to absorption, and the time to fixation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2739-2757
Number of pages19
JournalEvolution
Volume76
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Funding

This research was supported by the ISF-NRF Singapore joint research program (grant number 2669/17).The work of I.M. was supported by an Eshkol Fellowship of the Israeli Ministry of Science. This research was supported by the ISF‐NRF Singapore joint research program (grant number 2669/17).The work of I.M. was supported by an Eshkol Fellowship of the Israeli Ministry of Science.

FundersFunder number
ISF-NRF Singapore joint research program
ISF‐NRF Singapore joint research program2669/17
Israeli Ministry of Science
Israeli Ministry of Science

    Keywords

    • Competition
    • chance of ultimate fixation
    • fitness
    • fluctuations
    • varying environment

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