Estimation-based missile threat detection and evasion maneuver for a low-altitude aircraft

This paper considers an evasion maneuver for low-altitude aircraft (A/C) in the presence of the threat of a guided missile. The missile has boost and sustain phases and its trajectory is estimated by a 7-D motion parameter vector. The maximum likelihood estimator is used to estimate the missile motion parameters based on angle measurements from an A/C-borne passive sensor. Based on the estimated closest point of approach distance between the missile and the aircraft, a warning alert is then given to execute an evasion maneuver. The aircraft can bank away from the missile by a turning maneuver in the horizontal plane. Simulation shows that the aircraft can evade the missile by using the turning maneuver. The survivability probability of the aircraft is evaluated and it can be enhanced by an early maneuver start time and a large acceleration during the maneuver.