Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network

Bnaya Gross, Shlomo Havlin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the susceptible-infected-recovered model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread.

Original languageEnglish
Article number95
JournalApplied Network Science
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).

Funding

We thank the Israel Science Foundation, ONR, the BIU Center for Research in Applied Cryptography and Cyber Security, NSF-BSF Grant No. 2019740, and DTRA Grant No. HDTRA-1-19-1-0016 for financial support.

FundersFunder number
NSF-BSF2019740
Office of Naval Research
Defense Threat Reduction AgencyHDTRA-1-19-1-0016
Israel Science Foundation

    Keywords

    • Community networks
    • Control strategies
    • Epidemic spreading
    • Modular networks
    • Spatial networks

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