Bringing ir theory to contentious politics: Arab israeli demobilization after the al-Aqsa intifada (2001-2010)

The major theoretical paradigms in contentious politics hardly take into account the effect of external variables on the relationship between a state, its dominant community and the ethnic groups in that state that seek a change in the status quo. One, however, can easily hypothesize the salience of foreign factors in the many cases where the states are heterogeneous and are located in hostile regional environments (Israel, Serbia/Kosovo, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Jammu/Kashmir). The following article on the Arab Israeli demobilization after the second Intifada presents evidence that, albeit with an important modification from IR theory, supports the political opportunities model, which demonstrates that the unity and fragmentation of the state elite is often linked to perceived external threats which then affect the behavior of the contesting national minority. When threatened externally the state elite coalesces and its readiness to make concessions decreases while the costs of contentious politics rise and mobilization decreases for the aggrieved ethnic minority.