Analyzing epidemiological trends in second and third waves of COVID-19 variants in India

The COVID-19 pandemic wrought havoc across India, particularly during its devastating second and third waves. This study undertakes a crucial epidemiological analysis of these waves, leveraging actual variant count data. Given limited sequencing efforts, variant information is sparse, prompting a novel approach to scaling up with actual case data. Employing a multi-strain variant-level SEIRS model tailored to each Indian state, we modeled the disease’s propagation. We report the estimated parameters of the SEIRS models for the two waves separately. Notably, the transmission coefficients (β) were estimated to be 0.12 for Kappa, 0.35 for Delta, and 0.38 for Omicron. These coefficients signify the contagiousness of each variant, offering critical information for understanding and managing the pandemic’s dynamics. The findings hold significant implications for public health strategies, emphasizing the urgency of comprehensive variant tracking and proactive measures to mitigate the impact of evolving viral strains.