TY - JOUR
T1 - A Revisit of Large-Scale Patterns in Middle Stratospheric Circulation Variations
AU - Tao, Ningning
AU - Chen, Xiaosong
AU - Xie, Fei
AU - Zhang, Yongwen
AU - Xia, Yan
AU - Ma, Xuan
AU - Huang, Han
AU - Wang, Hongyu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 by the authors.
PY - 2025/3/21
Y1 - 2025/3/21
N2 - Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly impact tropospheric weather and climate. Understanding these variations not only aids in better prediction of tropospheric weather and climate but also provides guidance for the development and flight trajectories of stratospheric aircraft. Our understanding of the stratosphere has made remarkable progress over the past 100 years. However, we still lack a comprehensive perspective on large-scale patterns in stratospheric circulation, as the stratosphere is a typical complex system. To address this gap, we employed the eigen microstate approach (EMA) to revisit the characteristics of zonal wind from 70–10 hPa from 1980 to 2022, based on ERA5 reanalysis data. Our analysis focused on the three leading modes, corresponding to variations in the strength of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric atmospheric circulations in the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. After filtering out high-frequency components from the temporal evolutions of these modes, a significant 11-year cycle was observed in the Antarctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode, potentially linked to the 11-year solar cycle. In contrast, the Arctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode showed a 5–6-year cycle without evidence of an 11-year periodicity. This difference is likely due to the timing of polar vortex breakdowns: the Antarctic polar vortex breaks up later, experiencing its greatest variability in late spring and early summer, making it more susceptible to solar radiation effects, unlike the Arctic polar vortex, which peaks in winter and early spring. The fourth mode exhibits characteristics of a Southern Hemisphere dipole and shows a significant correlation with the Antarctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode, leading it by about two months. We designed a linear prediction model that successfully demonstrated its predictive capability for the Antarctic polar vortex.
AB - Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly impact tropospheric weather and climate. Understanding these variations not only aids in better prediction of tropospheric weather and climate but also provides guidance for the development and flight trajectories of stratospheric aircraft. Our understanding of the stratosphere has made remarkable progress over the past 100 years. However, we still lack a comprehensive perspective on large-scale patterns in stratospheric circulation, as the stratosphere is a typical complex system. To address this gap, we employed the eigen microstate approach (EMA) to revisit the characteristics of zonal wind from 70–10 hPa from 1980 to 2022, based on ERA5 reanalysis data. Our analysis focused on the three leading modes, corresponding to variations in the strength of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric atmospheric circulations in the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. After filtering out high-frequency components from the temporal evolutions of these modes, a significant 11-year cycle was observed in the Antarctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode, potentially linked to the 11-year solar cycle. In contrast, the Arctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode showed a 5–6-year cycle without evidence of an 11-year periodicity. This difference is likely due to the timing of polar vortex breakdowns: the Antarctic polar vortex breaks up later, experiencing its greatest variability in late spring and early summer, making it more susceptible to solar radiation effects, unlike the Arctic polar vortex, which peaks in winter and early spring. The fourth mode exhibits characteristics of a Southern Hemisphere dipole and shows a significant correlation with the Antarctic stratospheric atmospheric circulation mode, leading it by about two months. We designed a linear prediction model that successfully demonstrated its predictive capability for the Antarctic polar vortex.
KW - eigen microstate approach
KW - large-scale patterns
KW - stratospheric variations
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105003544010&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/e27040327
DO - 10.3390/e27040327
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C2 - 40282563
AN - SCOPUS:105003544010
SN - 1099-4300
VL - 27
JO - Entropy
JF - Entropy
IS - 4
M1 - 327
ER -