基于深度学习提升中国西南地区夏季降水短期气候预测的研究

In recent years,Southwestern China,including Yunnan,Guizhou,Sichuan,and Chongqing,has been frequently hit by flood disasters caused by climate change,resulting in severe casualties and enormous property losses. The occurrence of these disasters is closely related to abnormal precipitation. Although traditional statistical methods and atmospheric models have achieved certain effectiveness in precipitation forecasting,effective approaches for dealing with the complex spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation data are still lacking. With the development of machine learning technology,the convolutional long short-term memory network(ConvLSTM),which integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory networks (LSTM),has shown outstanding performance in addressing spatiotemporal sequence problems,particularly in the field of precipitation forecasting. In order to more accurately predict the summer precipitation in the southwestern region of China for the next year(short-term climate prediction of precipitation),this study constructed a dataset by integrating global sea surface temperature and precipitation data in Southwestern China. The ConvLSTM was used for training and named SST-ConvLSTM. This model not only captures the spatiotemporal characteristics in real precipitation data but also learns some information from global sea surface temperature data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of short-term climate prediction of precipitation. The results show that compared to ConvLSTM that does not consider sea surface temperature and a traditional atmospheric model,SST-ConvLSTM model has significant advantages in short-term climate prediction of summer precipitation in Southwestern China.(1)Numerically,the predictions of the SST-ConvLSTM model are closest to the real precipitation data, with similar trend changes. In contrast,both ConvLSTM and the traditional atmospheric model show certain deviations in their predictions.(2)Spatially,the SST-ConvLSTM model also performs well. Its predictions are consistent with the spatial distribution of real precipitation data and accurately reflect the spatial distribution of precipitation.(3)In model evaluation,three evaluation metrics were used to assess the performance of the SST-ConvLSTM model. The results show that the SST-ConvLSTM model performs well in all evaluation metrics and achieves the best scores. These findings provide important references and insights for future research on precipitation prediction in Southwestern China.